The book business has always struck me as a bit bipolar, prone to bouts of dire pessimism followed by flights of exaggerated optimism.
Publishing Perspectives just recently reported on a lengthy article in Christian Science Monitor (with the almost unforgiveable title “The Novel Resurgence of Independent Booksellers”), that indie booksellers are making a surprising comeback. Citing a survey conducted by the American Booksellers Association (ABA), sales at independent bookstores rose nearly 8% in 2012 over 2011–this while book sales at Barnes & Noble were flat. Both articles go on to quote Jim Milliot, co-editorial director of Publishers Weekly, “I think the worst days of the independents are behind it.” The articles also offered this quote from Michael Tamblyn, chief content officer of Kobo (which has partnered with the ABA to sell ereaders and ebooks at independent stores):
We absolutely believe indies are the small, fast-moving mammals in this dynamic. . . . If ebooks are the asteroid hitting this planet, small independent bookstores are the ones most likely to come out the other side.
Apart from the somewhat odd metaphors of small mammals and asteroids, the general sense is that things look pretty rosy for indie bookstores.
Another report, this one released Monday from Bowker (the industry’s key source of bibliographic data and market research), offers a fascinating picture of the migration of book sales. It merits a close look. There are two clear trends, neither a surprise: Online retailers account for 43.8% of book sales overall in 2012, up from 25.1% in 2010. And sales via large bookstore chains are down to 18.7% from 31.5% in 2010. But, books bought via independent booksellers have actually gone up, from 2.4% to 3.7% from 2010 to 2012. A number of blogs noted the relative strength of independent booksellers–a small but seeming thriving environmental for print books.
So all’s well for your corner bookstore? I think this is the wrong take-away. The fundamental dynamic here is the sharp decline in the market for books from physical retailors of all kinds. There is also the sense that physical retailers can’t do much of anything to translate whatever competitive advantage they have in physical retailing to online sales. (That’s a conclusion I don’t share, but that’s another topic.) The danger is that indie bookstores will take the recent good news on sales as meaning that they’ve taken the necessary steps to survive and thrive rather than seeing that the way to reverse (or at least stem) the migration to online retailers will require them to continue to focus on how to deliver value to readers.
